Egypt’s people have now forced a dramatic change in their governance.
They’ve done so by voting with their feet.
Voting with their blood, sweat and tears, in Tahrir Square and all over Egypt.
From the streets of Alexandria and the Library to the souks of Port Said and the Administrative central district of Cairo.
The Egyptians voted with their peaceful actions for Good Democratic Governance.
And they won.
Yet up to a point…
It is no accident that Mr Obama’s approach in his pivotal Cairo speech was of this aspiration a couple of years ago…
And although the tone back then was soft and Democracy was not even mentioned, it put the foundation for what was to come now.
For Democracy and the aspirations of the Egyptian people back then were going to be met by a willing new President…
This is not immediately obvious in the aftermath of bloody Mubarak’s fall.
The over – exaggerated fears that the Muslim Brotherhood will take control in a democratic Egypt are the currency of the present regime as well.
The fears that instability will sweep the region and that the Israel-Egypt peace treaty will be rent asunder is the main excuse of the Military for going slowly.
The Military regime now seems to demand a more traditional focus on stability over freedom.
Yet they are wrong.
Because the People have spoken.
ANd even Washington has spoken.
Because once Mr Obama decided early on in the Egyptian crisis to position the US on the right side of history, there is no going back.
Now with Mubarak gone, Obama and Clinton, will need to work harder and be steadfast to ensure Egypt’s democratic transition. This is by no means a sure thing, given that the self-appointed guardian of Democracy is the Egyptian military. An oxymoron at best but the generals also have made an early decision to side with the people.
And because they know which way their toast is buttered, are loath to risk losing American military subsidies and foreign aid that buys the boots for the ground security. For they also surely know that the Egyptian people and the Democracy protesters will return to Tahrir Square if the Military generals, backtrack on their promises to remove emergency laws and ensure free and fair elections in six months or less…
Although the timetable is unlikely, the elections will happen within the year.
But partnering again with the Egyptian military has considerable disadvantages for Mr Obama. Because they are heavily dependent on US military assistance, they have a big stake in maintaining the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, which they have promptly reaffirmed; and they will keep a wary eye on the Muslim Brotherhood, but that makes them undemocratic if the will of the Egyptian people doesn’t have the same Realpolitik views… So is Obama gonna get locked again in supporting a despotic regime?
Mr Obama and Ms Clinton now they have an alternative position.
They can quickly mobilize the well-oiled American democracy promotion machine that can help Egypt’s youthful secular forces organise succesfully and field democratic, secular, and electable candidates, for the coming elections.
And the President would do well to lead an international effort to help revive the Egyptian economy, which is struggling after thirty long years of corruption, economic mismanagement and favouritism, despite the rejuvenating effects of the revolution.
And Obama needs to neutralize the despotic Arabs who are distrustful of the People’s intentions, fearful of change and against any democratic progress. It is these same, Gulf Arab and resolute despotic American allies who are very reluctant to go peacefully, and who might just side with the wrong side of the struggle towards Democracy, as they were always found to do…
Therefore it would be better for Obama to encourage western and emerging democracies to take the lead and help Egypt and the rejuvenated states and bypass the recalcitrant Arabs who are eager to be left behind the loop of history once more. Same goes for Israel… But the Western energetic democracies are far more likely to have a powerful interest in the success of Egypt’s democratic transition, youthful growing economy and long term progress. So You must focus on them delivering economic short term aid, Democratic transparency advise and monitors and plenty of business deals.
These measures and a well observed and organized Democratic election with many secular parties, plethora of candidates and economic support from fellow democracies from around the world, will do much to counter the possibility that the Muslim Brotherhood could emerge as the dominant political player. In any case, the Brotherhood seems determined to play a long game, already announcing that it does not want to govern. And in the long term, the best way to counter its bid for control is to ensure that secular forces have enough support.
Given Egypt’s centrality to the North African, the Semitic, the Mediterranean and the Arab world; bolstering a sure-footed transition to democracy there will generate powerful popular pressure for democratic change in the rest of the Middle East.
Because of that, President Obama needs to encourage all the Arab autocratic allies to stay out of meddling with Egypt.
And the best way to ensure they do that is to ask them directly to do Good Governance reforms.
Obama and Ms Clinton have to ask them to go ahead and do the reforms the previous Egyptian regime stubbornly refused. And pointing the fate of Mubarak and his cronies in the trash heap of history would be a good abject lesson for these geezers.
Go ahead Mr President, and ask them point blank to open up their political freedom of expression and offer more transparent accountable government. After all Washington owes to help them get ahead of the curve if the Energy Security needs be maintained. The demands of their people for political reform must be heeded, lest they too discover it is too late to act when the pot of public resentment, simmers and overflows. And still the US is the one that needs to lead the charge in order to foster change and Democratic winds blowing in the laid back Peninsula.
President Obama in delivering this message, will have to make it clear that if they move forwards he will support rather than undercut them.
Maybe that thing about allowing targeted Internet Freedoms and fostering self organizing network movements be the ticket.
Ms Clinton needs to fund this Democracy Project and cooperate with civil Society for the best.
Obama figured in the new Budget [prophetically] the provision for the New Democracy project.
Coincidence?
Yours,
Pano
Yours,
Pano
PS:
Looking back at that pivotal day of his speech in Cairo, the auguries are good that He will succeed to help the people reach Democracy there…
And the Environmental Parliament is one of the Democracy Project signatories and worked hard in Egypt for the overthrow and the restoration of Democratic rule that ultimately is the natural course of Governance of the People.
We are willing to work hard in the rest of the Middle East for that too.
Because Democracy is the only method to reach consensus in order to sort out the Environment and meet the global challenges of Climate Change.
It is this where we need a Democratic world response agreement crucial to us moving forward intelligently.
