Posted by: Dr Pano Kroko | March 29, 2011

Energy Market usage forecast

World Energy Use by Fuel

That’s the official US government’s energy forecast out to 2035.

It breaks down like this:

Liquids Natural Gas Coal vs Renewables Nuclear Renewables
Quadtrillion

BTU

223.57 162.03 206.26 — 99.78 47.08 99.78
% 30.00% 22.00% 28.00% — 14.00% 6.00% 14.00%

The forecast states, that “despite rising prices, use of liquid fuels increases by an average of 1.3 percent per year, or 45 percent overall from 2007 to 2035.”

The global economic recession that began in 2008 and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on world energy demand in the near term. Total world marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2 percent in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services declined. Although the recession appears to have ended, the pace of recovery has been uneven so far, with China and India leading and Japan and the European Union member countries lagging. In the Reference case, as the economic situation improves, most nations return to the economic growth paths that were anticipated before the recession began.

The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2007 to 2035 occurs in nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development1 (non-OECD nations). Total non-OECD energy consumption increases by 84 percent in the Reference case, compared with a 14-percent increase in energy use among OECD countries. Strong long-term growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the emerging economies of non-OECD countries drives the fast-paced growth in energy demand. In all non-OECD regions combined, economic activity—as measured by GDP in purchasing power parity terms—increases by 4.4 percent per year on average, compared with an average of 2.0 percent per year for OECD countries.

The IEO2010 Reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources over the 2007-2035 projection period (Figure 2). Fossil fuels are expected to continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. Although liquid fuels remain the largest source of energy, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption falls from 35 percent in 2007 to 30 percent in 2035, as projected high world oil prices lead many energy users to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible. In the Reference case, the use of liquids grows modestly or declines in all end-use sectors except transportation, where in the absence of significant technological advances liquids continue to provide much of the energy consumed.

Average oil prices increased strongly from 2003 to mid-July 2008, when prices collapsed as a result of concerns about the deepening recession. In 2009, oil prices trended upward throughout the year, from about $42 per barrel in January to $74 per barrel in December. Oil prices have been especially sensitive to demand expectations, with producers, consumers, and traders continually looking for an indication of possible recovery in world economic growth and a likely corresponding increase in oil demand. On the supply side, OPEC’s above-average compliance to agreed-upon production targets increased the group’s spare capacity to roughly 5 million barrels per day in 2009. Further, many of the non-OPEC projects that were delayed during the price slump in the second half of 2008 have not yet been revived.

After 2 years of declining demand, world liquids consumption is expected to increase in 2010 and strengthen thereafter as the world economies recover fully from the effects of the recession. In the IEO2010 Reference case, the price of light sweet crude oil in the United States (in real 2008 dollars) rises from $79 per barrel in 2010 to $108 per barrel in 2020 and $133 per barrel in 2035.

Liquid fuels

Liquids remain the world’s largest energy source throughout the IEO2010 Reference case projection, given their importance in the transportation and industrial end-use sectors. World use of liquids and other petroleum3 grows from 86.1 million barrels per day in 2007 to 92.1 million barrels per day in 2020, 103.9 million barrels per day in 2030, and 110.6 million barrels per day in 2035. On a global basis, liquids consumption remains flat in the buildings sector, increases modestly in the industrial sector, but declines in the electric power sector as electricity generators react to rising world oil prices by switching to alternative fuels whenever possible. In the transportation sector, despite rising prices, use of liquid fuels increases by an average of 1.3 percent per year, or 45 percent overall from 2007 to 2035.

To meet the increase in world demand in the Reference case, liquids production (including both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies) increases by a total of 25.8 million barrels per day from 2007 to 2035. The Reference case assumes that OPEC countries will invest in incremental production capacity in order to maintain a share of approximately 40 percent of total world liquids production through 2035, consistent with their share over the past 15 years. Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC producers contribute 11.5 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 4.8 million barrels per day.

Unconventional resources (including oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and shale oil) from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources grow on average by 4.9 percent per year over the projection period. Sustained high oil prices allow unconventional resources to become economically competitive, particularly when geopolitical or other “above ground” constraints4 limit access to prospective conventional resources. World production of unconventional liquid fuels, which totaled only 3.4 million barrels per day in 2007, increases to 12.9 million barrels per day and accounts for 12 percent of total world liquids supply in 2035. Oil sands from Canada and biofuels, largely from Brazil and the United States, are the largest components of future unconventional production in the IEO2010Reference case, providing a combined 70 percent of the increment in total unconventional supply over the projection period.

Electricity

World net electricity generation increases by 87 percent in the Reference case, from 18.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 to 25.0 trillion kilowatthours in 2020 and 35.2 trillion kilowatthours in 2035. Although the recession slowed the rate of growth in electricity demand in 2008 and 2009, growth returns to pre-recession rates by 2015 in the Reference case. In general, in OECD countries, where electricity markets are well established and consumption patterns are mature, the growth of electricity demand is slower than in non-OECD countries, where a large amount of potential demand remains unmet. In the Reference case, total net generation in non-OECD countries increases by 3.3 percent per year on average, as compared with 1.1 percent per year in OECD nations.

The rapid increase in world energy prices from 2003 to 2008, combined with concerns about the environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, has led to renewed interest in alternatives to fossil fuels—particularly, nuclear power and renewable resources. As a result, long-term prospects continue to improve for generation from both nuclear and renewable energy sources—supported by government incentives and by higher fossil fuel prices.

From 2007 to 2035, world renewable energy use for electricity generation grows by an average of 3.0 percent per year (Figure 6), and the renewable share of world electricity generation increases from 18 percent in 2007 to 23 percent in 2035. Coal-fired generation increases by an annual average of 2.3 percent in the Reference case, making coal the second fastest-growing source for electricity generation in the projection. The outlook for coal could be altered substantially, however, by any future legislation that would reduce or limit the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. Generation from natural gas and nuclear power—which produce relatively low levels of greenhouse gas emissions (natural gas) or none (nuclear)—increase by 2.1 and 2.0 percent per year, respectively, in the Reference case.

Figure 6. World net electricity generation by fuel, 2007-2035 (trillion kilowatthours)

Much of the world increase in renewable electricity supply is fueled by hydropower and wind power. Of the 4.5 trillion kilowatthours of increased renewable generation over the projection period, 2.4 trillion kilowatthours (54 percent) is attributed to hydroelectric power and 1.2 trillion kilowatthours (26 percent) to wind. Except for those two sources, most renewable generation technologies are not economically competitive with fossil fuels over the projection period, outside a limited number of niche markets. Typically, government incentives or policies provide the primary support for construction of renewable generation facilities. Although they remain a small part of total renewable generation, renewables other than hydroelectricity and wind—including solar, geothermal, biomass, waste, and tidal/wave/oceanic energy—do increase at a rapid rate over the projection period (Figure 7).

Figure 7. World renewable electricity generation by energy source, excluding wind and hydropower, 2007-2035 (billion kilowatthours)

Electricity generation from nuclear power increases from about 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 to a projected 3.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2020 and then to 4.5 trillion kilowatthours in 2035. Higher future prices for fossil fuels make nuclear power economically competitive with generation from coal, natural gas, and liquid fuels, despite the relatively high capital costs of nuclear power plants. Moreover, higher capacity utilization rates have been reported for many existing nuclear facilities, and the projection anticipates that most of the older nuclear power plants in OECD countries and non-OECD Eurasia will be granted extensions to their operating lives.

Around the world, nuclear generation is attracting new interest as countries seek to increase the diversity of their energy supplies, improve energy security, and provide a low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels. Still, there is considerable uncertainty associated with nuclear power projections. Issues that could slow the expansion of nuclear power in the future include plant safety, radioactive waste disposal, rising construction costs and investment risk, and nuclear material proliferation concerns. Those issues continue to raise public concern in many countries and may hinder the development of new nuclear power reactors. Nevertheless, the IEO2010 Reference case incorporates improved prospects for world nuclear power. The projection for nuclear electricity generation in 2030 is 9 percent higher than the projection published in last year’s IEO.

On a regional basis, the Reference case projects the strongest growth in nuclear power for the countries of non-OECD Asia, where nuclear power generation is projected to grow at an average rate of 7.7 percent per year from 2007 to 2035, including projected increases averaging 8.4 percent per year in China and 9.5 percent per year in India. Outside Asia, the largest projected increase in installed nuclear capacity is in Central and South America, with increases in nuclear power generation averaging 4.3 percent per year. Prospects for nuclear generation in OECD Europe have undergone a significant revision from last year’s outlook, because a number of countries in the region are reversing policies that require the retirement of nuclear power plants and moratoria on new construction. In the IEO2010 Reference case, nuclear generation in OECD Europe increases on average by 0.8 percent per year, as compared with the small decline projected in IEO2009.

The fact that Renewables are set to double over nuclear is encouraging.

However the report’s projection that renewables will only be a meager 14% is dead wrong.

Environmental parliament’s projections are that the Renewables will account for upwards of 35% Energy usage and generation globally in the next thirty years.

Care to bet on it to make it interesting?

Yours,

Pano

PS:

Because we clearly bet on it our Future.

Renewables are the only answer to our Energy Security needs.

Still a lot of work and investment has to happen for this to become our every day reality.

Because our old friend cheap King Coal is making a huge comeback….

with the appalling CO2 footprint to boot.

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