Posted by: Dr Pano Kroko | December 19, 2012

The Environmental Parliament issues report: Governments should act forcefully on Climate Change……

The Environmental Parliament (EP) issued a report, that says in essence: “Governments should act forcefully to arrest Climate Change and deal with it’s many runaway effects or else…”

The Environmental Parliament scientists and researchers who compiled the report, specifically state: “Governments should act now or lose their sovereignty in the course of imminent Geopolitical changes due to Climate Change.”

Europe is now in a race against it’s own climate and you can guess who is wining…

After the infamous Doha climate change global conference failure this month, we are left with little hope of a global deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Therefore temperature rises of 5° Celsius, above industrial levels are already escalating and topping the 5° degrees Celsius landmark temperature rise from today, by 2050.

This is certainly putting Old Europe in full peril – well before the year 2o50. And this means that people must start adapting fast, behaviours and economies must change, agricultural production must shift to the new reality, grains and staple food stockades must be elevated, security must be addressed, and countries have to act fast — with just a decade or less — to prepare for some seriously catastrophic if not cataclysmic events.

Now the new report issued by the Environmental Parliament comes along right at the heels of the failures of the United Nations Climate Conference in Doha, and the leaks about the failure of the new IPCC report – not released yet – to pacify the denialists and the disruptive sceptics causing uncertainty amongst it’s ranks.

The Environmental Parliament Report clearly and articulately spells out the case for Climate Change Adaptation on a country by country case study that can be the road map for Mitigation and Adaptation mechanisms necessary to put in place for each and every country of Europe and beyond . The study addresses the whole of our Earth, yet divided along antional entity borders in order to make it more useful to national Parliaments to enact Public Policies that address the issues correctly.

The Environmental Parliament Report clearly outlines how the climate has already changed across the world and in the European continent, in particular and what will happen next. And as the IPCC report is expected to come out soonest — it will certainly bolster the findings of the EP scientists and researchers.

Now with the Environmental Parliament Report released in massive detail — for the first time ever — we have a reasonably clear picture of where Europe and the World are going to be feeling in the next few years from 2000 leading to 2050.

We have a clear bird’s eye view for all eventualities. From the need to reshape and relocate cities and population centres, to defending our coastlines, and rethinking our agriculture — to how will our countries change, in ways never imagined before. This is happening, whether we like it or not. That’s the thing with Climate Change. It doesn’t ask permission to kill you, or alter your life…

The question remains: Will old Europe prove resilient enough, or fit enough to be able to change and survive?

This remains the key according to the Environmental Parliament report.

We shall examine here at the BEB all the impacts of Climate Change on a country by country basis for the next few decades leading to 2050.

We will do so because the environment is conducive to such micro-cell examination since local variance creates winners and losers in the short term but overall losers on the long term.

And we will examine the cost and value of remediation efforts across each country of the Union.

We do so, because this massive amount of work has never been undertaken before and the Environmental Parliament Report and associated study has never been undertaken by anyone institution nor the body of the European Union and it’s parliament yet.  No other entity or public forum has shifted on this yet. That’s why we are the leading edge leadership here…

So here we start with this careful and diligent examination of the small country often called the pillar of Western Civilization and the recent hot bed of strife and crisis – Greece. Greece is lying in the South Eastern peninsula of Europe – the Balkans – over all known for ethnic and religious conflict spanning centuries and many unhealed wounds.

Still there is no agreement that the place bears the brunt of Climate Change for Europe, same as it bears the brunt of the massive movement of climate refugee and economic and political migrants crossing into Europe from Asia. The vast costs of the Greek states attempts at stemming the flow of humanity before it reaches the capitals of Europe belie the lack of effort at adaptation and mitigation against Climate Change.

And there is not even a portfolio minister addressing this issue. So there exists no central command authority to deal with the biggest existential threat the world has ever seen and this small country is fully naked expecting to be wiped out without any protection.

Yet in the rest of the civilized world, this is the driver of much needed Long Term Planning.

Economies that can afford to plan and create the necessary infrastructure, are also the ones less affected by the severe effects of Climate Change. And still in those countries that have the wherewithal and the civil services capacity along with the intelligent political class capable of leading the investment necessary for long term adaptation and mitigation to fend off and protect their citizenry from the worst effects of the incoming “heat-change” still see a massive denialism and scepticism hampering their efforts. And therefore less action than what is required is taken. this attitude also makes it impossible to help the other countries of the Union facing serious peril such as those in the Balkan peninsula.

Still it remains upon the civil service of the developed nations to do it’s utmost to help us successfully transition and navigate the changes underfoot.

Extremes of temperature are becoming more common, and all of Europe will have to deal with more frequent and severe heatwaves, but especially Greece which will be the first serious victim as a whole.

The Environmental Parliament Report is mapping the climate change model accurately perceived and conservatively calculates the overall minimum increases in temperature and also the increases in the number of extremely hot days and the number of people killing heatwaves.

Of all the Mediterranean countries, Greece will experience the greatest increase in extremely hot temperatures because in some Greek regions, summer days will be 8° to 10° Celsius hotter than they were between 1960 and 1990.

Athens, Greece, and the SE of Europe, are all getting dangerously hot

Because the thin strip of coast around the Aegean and the Mediterranean seas, will see the largest increases in both temperatures and in the number of seriously and dangerously hot days – up to 70 more extreme hot days per year along the low lying coastline areas, this is considered dangerously HOT zone.

The Environmental Parliament earth science and climate researchers, compared the present, the past, and the future, through their modeling computer simulation.

In the first instance, the rapid population growth and the few “green” policy measures meant that all greenhouse gas emissions and especially CO2, continued to rise exponentially during the first half of this century.

In the second instance, governments and societies adapted to more environmentally friendly lifestyles, such as using green fuels and producing/consuming exclusively renewable energy, and thus minimizing the negative greenhouse effects of pumping CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, and the global population did not rise as fast and neither did the model of consumption typical of middle class rising in countries like China and India and the rest of the BRICS as well as elsewhere in Africa and the developing world.

These results from the Environmental Parliament Report are based on the computer simulations and the modeling scenarios run over the last year utilizing the vast computing power of the distributed cloud and a crowd sourced massively run parallel computing initiative amongst universities and private home or office PCs running it in their “off time.”

Thus the EP report is the first crowd sourced and crowd reproduced climate change scientific report — and it shows the power of community acting on the gift economy ideals. The EP report itself showed that the number of dangerously hot days could increase by between 700% and 900% by the end of 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions continue their exponential rise. As a result, temperatures currently experienced during the hottest weeks of the summer would become typical of the whole of summer and even of the cooler weeks of the spring, summer and fall. One might expect that an average warming of five degrees would equate to each day warming by 5 degrees Celsius, but in fact the hottest days warm quite a bit more — thus in places making them unlivable. Results from the EP modeling scenario suggest that even by reducing emissions levels we could not cut the increase in temperatures.

The Environmental Parliament scientists and researchers who compiled the report, say governments should brace themselves for summer heatwaves like the one that struck Europe in 2003 and killed more than fifty five thousand people, to become regular and commonplace, even if they adopt climate-friendly policies.

While the heatwave ravaged the livelihoods of many, destroyed agriculture, claimed thousands of lives across Europe and especially in France, the Balkans and Greece — it also started devastating forest fires across the SE Mediterranean region, and it’s destructive strength was such, that it spiked temperature records across the whole of Europe — all the way from London to Athens. Right after this catastrophe, the European Commission (EC) issued a little-noticed bulletin: It showed a prolonged drought was causing drastic changes in agricultural output, especially in southeastern Europe.

And the changes almost perfectly match our predictions of the effects of global warming over the first half of this century.

Unfortunately, we also find that decreases in greenhouse gas emissions do not greatly reduce the impact in the immediate future, and we see all the negative effects coming on – even with reduced emission scenarios. Because for the trajectory of our CO2 cycle to be reduced we must act prudently over more than a century to alleviate the effects of Climate Change.

What makes Greece and the SouthEastern Mediterranean region so sensitive to climate change and susceptible to these dangerously extreme heat wave, is a “surface moisture feedback” that is self feeding, because as temperatures rise, the landmass not only gets hotter, it gets drier too.

This means there is less evaporative cooling and this in turn, leads to destroying the “humus” that allows for agriculture to take place. “Humus” being the top few inches of soil that allow life to grow, is the most precious asset for food production and agriculture and it remains alive and soft only by being remoistened each and every night from the airborne humidity. When the humidity of the air is gone, so is the humus.

First, the morning dew disappears, along with all the incects, small life forms, and bird populations relying upon it for feeding and reproduction — then the rest of the ecosystem disintegrates. With the disappearance of the bees, the necessary cross pollination of crops becomes impossible, and agricultural yields collapse.

Still the top soil gets drier and drier until it breaks up in parched chunks of sand and rock. Then the wind picks up the sandy humus and blows it away making the reclamation of the top soil impossible. This is described as the dust bowl effect and once it takes place irreversibly — it constitutes a desert.

The 2003 heatwave is thought to have killed more than 55,000 people across Europe, nearly 15,000 of which were in the South East, and it dessertified areas of Greece, Portugal and Spain. Yet it affected long term European agriculture greatly as well…

All of the Southeastern parts of the European Union, will experience the biggest temperature increases — especially in heavily populated areas magnified by the “heat-island” effect. Heat Island is the effect of the densely built, urban sprawl, asphalt and concrete built cities, with no big greens, nor parks no vast open spaces, and of course no water features, such as lakes and rivers, coursing through. The surrounding forests have all been burned down and mined for charcoal and the land cleared for real estate development feeding the urban sprawl and little if any trees remain standing. This describes Greece’s capital city Athens to a t…

Specifically, the destruction by fire of all the mountainous contiguous forests is the key to the transformation of the Athens and it’s surrounding countryside to a practical desert. Because the destruction of the forests presages the elimination of the cycle of the forest induced microclimates that attract precipitation and bountiful rain. This collapses the cloud attracting microclimate and turns the Attic landscape into a desert, making Athens and the surrounding satellite cities unlivable and unmanageable — long term.

As an example, the Taklamakan desert contains – buried in it’s sands - more than two thousand such cities that succumbed to the desert and disappeared in the space of less than one hundred years. And the rest of the world is full of such examples where people overexploited their environment thus causing ecosystem collapse and their own disappearance.  From the Anasazi in the southwest United States, to the MesoAmerican Mayians, Incas and all others; and from the Khmer people dying off, to the Wuhuan people collapsing when their plateau ecosyystems were destroyed by overexploitation and they were supplanted by the Han people.

Today the massively wasteful exploitation of GREECE’s environment coinciding with chaotic climate events, will lead Greece to failure as a state. No longer the European partners will deign to support and prop up a failed state and a troublesome irksome populace and thus the Greek National Sovereignty will disband, along with most of it’s immediate neighbours.

Athens – capital of Greece – for one, will become a living nightmare, because the heat zones around Greece converge there and make it the most susceptible area to the catastrophic convergence of heatwaves, drought, famine, climate migration, and heat storms — all leading to severe desertification. All but the hardiest of plant-life, people and beasts, will die off or migrate en masse.   This in turn, will greatly increase the local Balkan, the other migrant and climate refugee populations, along with the Turkic tensions and the jockeying for control of the strategic resources of fresh water will intensify to a fever pitch. This, because fresh water will be scarce and thus become the most coveted and much needed war focus.

Thus the local conflicts will become a daily occurrence for control of the remainder of this victual resource and for the major rivers still flowing in the ravaged ecosystem. As an example we take this historical scenario, that has been played over many times in this and other areas of the world and in recent history, in the state of Israel where thirty seven wars have been enacted and waged over the last fifty years against their neighbours — simply for control and management of the shared fresh water supply. Under the influence of these pressures, wars will further ravage the landscape and lead to mass migrations of the remaining hardy souls.

The national borders will be obliterated and Balkanization will severely change the demographic make up, the  political geography and the maps. Dystopia follows, until a more “durable,” “adaptable” and “darker skinned” population capable of living under these conditions – emerges as the regional leader and takes dynamic control of the area to suppress unrest through autocratic regime measures. The new rulers will enforce necessary changes, from religious dogma to dress codes and the type of law fit for their governance. A less tolerant society will ensue and knowledge will be suppressed in order to create less resistant, less restive and pliant homogeneous population.

An attempt to purge all traces of the old peoples, systems, democracy, dynasties, knowledge and identities, will lead to extremes such as the infamous burning of books and burying of scholars that timed the fall of the Qin dynasty and the rise of the Han peoples in China, or the Middle Ages ushered in with the burning of the books of the library of Alexandria by the Christians and the persecution and stoning of the scholars.

History tends to repeat itself…

And thus it will be for Greece.

Yurs,

Pano

PS:

The country per country real estate will not be valuable anymore because of the desertification, but people will still wage internecine wars — wanting to hang on to old ideas about national sovereignty of an almost uninhabitable terrain.

In the Balkans, old habits die last…

Here is the map of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Effects as mapped out and visualized for popular understanding by EP based on the newly released report:

European Climate Dystopia in the South East of the continent -- the Balkans well before mid-century

 

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